Matrixport Research: Bear Market Confirmed — The Next High-Probability Buying Opportunity May Not Have Arrived Yet

"Critical thresholds have not yet been reached, and the required reversal signals remain pending."

Bitcoin has now breached the critical levels identified in our October 31, 2025, report, formally confirming a bear market. The magnitude and pace of the current decline closely mirror those of prior-cycle downturns. As a result, the key question for investors is no longer whether the trend has changed, but when the next high-probability buying opportunity will emerge.

Looking back at this cycle, we identified the bull market start on October 28, 2022, using our cycle framework, and subsequently projected a potential cycle top at $125,000 in our July 6, 2023, report. Between late 2024 and the peak in October 2025, Bitcoin exhibited multiple signs of completing its fifth bull market phase. This view was ultimately confirmed once the critical levels were breached, formally signaling a bear market.

Against this backdrop, we rely on a range of quantitative models—including the one-year moving average, the monthly stochastic indicator, and the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI)—to evaluate the timing and price levels of investable cycle lows, and to assess when downside risk is largely exhausted and conditions begin shifting in favor of a new bull market.

After Falling Below the One-Year Moving Average, the Time Framework Now Points Toward 2026

In November 2025, Bitcoin fell below its one-year moving average—a signal that has historically marked the beginning of a bear market. These bear market phases typically last approximately 12 months, implying that the next Bitcoin bull market could begin in Q4 2026. However, the actual price low could occur earlier, most likely in Q3 or Q4 2026.

In our view, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is less driven by mining reward halvings and more closely aligned with the U.S. political cycle. A stronger pattern emerges around U.S. midterm election years—2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and the upcoming 2026 cycle. Historically, Bitcoin has consistently peaked toward the end of the year preceding midterm election years and bottomed during the midterm election year itself.

This reinforces the view that Bitcoin's cycle timing is more closely aligned with broader macro and political uncertainty cycles than with the mechanical timing of mining reward halvings.

Key Technical Thresholds Have Not Yet Been Reached — A Confirmed Reversal Is Still Required

Based on our monthly stochastic model, bear markets have historically persisted until the indicator reversed higher from deeply oversold levels, typically below 15%. With the monthly stochastic indicator currently at 39%, Bitcoin has not yet reached the deeply oversold conditions that have historically defined prior cycle lows.

Similarly, Bitcoin's monthly RSI has shown a highly consistent cyclical pattern. Cycle bottoms have typically formed near the 48% level. With the RSI currently at 50%, Bitcoin is approaching the critical downside zone where prior bear markets have bottomed. However, the key signal is not simply reaching this threshold, but the subsequent reversal. Historically, the most reliable bottoming signal occurs when the RSI first falls below 48% and then reverses higher, confirming that downside momentum has been exhausted and a new cycle is beginning.

At present, this final capitulation phase and confirmed reversal have not yet occurred. While Bitcoin is approaching levels consistent with prior cycle lows, the definitive bottoming signal remains pending.

Overall, the final low of this bear market has likely not yet been reached. Historically, durable cycle bottoms tend to form during periods of low trading volume, when selling pressure gradually dissipates and market participation declines. In contrast, sharp declines accompanied by cascading liquidations and surging volume are more characteristic of mid-cycle capitulation events rather than final cycle lows.

Within the broader political cycle framework and guided by technical confirmation, once these thresholds are breached and confirmed by a reversal, the countdown toward an investable bottom will begin. Bitcoin is now approaching levels consistent with prior cycle lows, but the required reversal signals have not yet been triggered. Patience remains essential during this final stage of the bear market.